Understanding that the Euribor moves in cycles, not in a constant trend in one direction, helps you make mortgage decisions with more historical perspective, rather than reacting solely to the situation at the exact moment you sign a loan.
The Euribor doesn't rise or fall in a straight line
Over the past few decades, the Euribor has gone through very different periods: phases of high rates, long stretches near zero or even negative, and episodes of rapid increases in response to periods of high inflation. There's no single, permanent trend, but rather cycles that respond mainly to the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions and the broader economic context.
Why the negative-rate period was a historical anomaly
The prolonged period when the Euribor sat at negative values, after the 2008 financial crisis and later during the pandemic, was a historically atypical phenomenon, the result of extraordinarily expansive monetary policies aimed at stimulating the economy. It shouldn't be taken as the "normal" reference scenario for planning a 20- or 30-year mortgage.
The practical lesson: don't sign assuming current conditions will last forever
Anyone who signs a variable-rate mortgage during a period of very low rates, without considering the possibility that they could rise significantly in the future, may be in for a considerable surprise when the cycle turns. Likewise, anyone who avoids a mortgage during a period of high rates, assuming they'll stay that way indefinitely, may be missing an opportunity if the following cycle turns downward.
How to use historical perspective in your decision
Rather than trying to predict where the Euribor will move in the coming years (something even financial experts consistently fail to get right), the most useful lesson from historical perspective is to size your ability to pay with significant rate increases in mind, not just the conditions in place at the moment you sign.
A fixed-rate mortgage as a way to remove this uncertainty
If the variability of the Euribor creates a level of uncertainty you're not willing to take on, a fixed-rate mortgage removes this risk entirely, in exchange for generally starting from a somewhat higher rate than the variable rate available at the time of signing.
Simulate different Euribor scenarios on your mortgage
Our mortgage calculator lets you enter different interest rates to simulate how your monthly payment would change under different scenarios, useful for sizing your safety margin before signing a variable-rate mortgage.